Fri, Feb 27, 2026·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 3, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 116 | 012 | 211 | 339 |
| FLA | 011 | 111 | 18 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:48BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Ryan McLeod, Bowen Byram · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 13:51FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P3 11:38BUFBeck MalenstynAssists: Josh Norris, Noah Ostlund · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 18:43BUFPeyton KrebsENGWGAssists: Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–1
- P3 19:25FLASam BennettUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:00BUFBeck Malenstyn: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:57FLAA.J. Greer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:47BUFJack Quinn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:45BUFMichael Kesselring: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:55FLAGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
- P3 5:20BUFJosh Dunne: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:38FLASandis Vilmanis: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McLeod – Quinn8:55
xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs11:35
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Dunne – Kozak7:26
xG 0.48–0.40 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Norris – Doan – Ostlund11:21
xG 0.59–0.59 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Byram2:37
xG 0.78–0.08 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin7:54
xG 0.47–0.06 (89%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Byram – Power9:49
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Kunin – Vilmanis6:08
xG 0.49–0.28 (63%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Marchand – Luostarinen – Lundell7:52
xG 0.40–0.39 (50%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Samoskevich10:14
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Rodrigues12:14
xG 0.25–0.87 (22%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMikkola – Sebrango4:17
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Petry – Sebrango4:16
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Balinskis5:54
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).