Fri, Feb 27, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Washington Capitals 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 06 | 07 | 213 | 226 |
| WSH | 010 | 312 | 08 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:49WSHPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Rasmus Sandin · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:23WSHPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 14:52WSHJakob ChychrunGWGAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 2:27VGKBraeden BowmanAssists: Kaedan Korczak, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 9:15VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:47VGKIvan Barbashev: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:34WSHMatt Roy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:41VGKBraeden Bowman: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:58VGKNoah Hanifin: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:44WSHRyan Leonard: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:26VGKKaedan Korczak: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:15WSHJustin Sourdif: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 15:36VGKMark Stone: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Marner – Dorofeyev9:03
xG 0.46–0.08 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Saad – Sissons – Holtz6:04
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Hertl – Kolesar – Bowman7:42
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel10:44
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson13:31
xG 0.91–0.61 (60%)attempts 21–12goals 0–1
- Theodore – Lauzon13:13
xG 0.66–0.38 (64%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- McNabb – Korczak11:12
xG 0.77–0.62 (55%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – Protas10:38
xG 0.69–0.25 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 3–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Frank5:40
xG 0.34–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- McMichael – Sourdif – Leonard5:59
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier8:30
xG 0.38–1.01 (27%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Chychrun12:56
xG 0.59–0.45 (57%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Fehérváry – Sandin13:34
xG 0.60–0.60 (50%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chisholm8:05
xG 0.18–0.83 (18%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).