Sat, Feb 28, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 114 | 04 | 06 | 0 | 234 |
| NYR | 02 | 111 | 110 | 02 | 1 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:08PITAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 1:59PITRyan SheaAssists: Connor Clifton, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 10:00NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 2:57NYRTaylor RaddyshAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Brendan Brisson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PIT Anthony Mantha stopped
- 2. NYR Vincent Trocheck scored
- 3. PIT Egor Chinakhov stopped
- 4. NYR J.T. Miller stopped
- 5. PIT Tommy Novak stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:28NYRBraden Schneider: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 2:36NYRVincent Trocheck: Abuse of officials2 min
- P1 2:36NYRVincent Trocheck: Misconduct10 min
- P1 15:59PITBlake Lizotte: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:30NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Holding2 min
- P2 9:09PITRickard Rakell: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Novak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAcciari – Dewar – Lizotte10:10
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov10:50
xG 0.84–0.76 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Rust – Rakell – Hayes8:47
xG 0.09–0.26 (26%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Mantha – Brazeau – Kindel10:06
xG 0.21–1.14 (16%)attempts 4–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon15:01
xG 0.90–0.83 (52%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Clifton – Shea13:12
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Letang – Girard16:37
xG 0.28–0.78 (26%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Miller – Perreault8:59
xG 1.40–0.09 (94%)attempts 23–3goals 0–0
- Sheary – Kartye – Laba5:41
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Carrick – Raddysh – Brisson4:36
xG 0.12–0.05 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kartye – Brisson – Laba3:12
xG 0.05–0.09 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox16:34
xG 0.96–0.29 (77%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Robertson – Morrow12:26
xG 0.90–0.42 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Borgen – Schneider13:37
xG 0.47–0.58 (45%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).