Sun, Mar 1, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Vegas Golden Knights 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 05 | 07 | 010 | 022 |
| PIT | 16 | 311 | 15 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:56PITBen KindelGWGAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 5:47PITEgor ChinakhovAssists: Tommy Novak, Justin Brazeau · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 9:34PITBryan RustPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P2 15:06PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–4
- P3 14:59PITJustin BrazeauAssists: Ben Kindel, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–5
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:41VGKMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:02VGKCole Reinhardt: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 9:02PITAvery Hayes: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:02VGKCole Reinhardt: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:32PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:10VGKBraeden Bowman: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 15:42PITBlake Lizotte: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:17VGKReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Novak won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Marner – Dorofeyev7:35
xG 0.47–0.01 (99%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Saad – Hertl – Kolesar6:43
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Saad – Marner – Dorofeyev2:03
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hertl – Kolesar – Bowman3:35
xG 0.08–0.08 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore8:24
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- McNabb – Korczak8:15
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Korczak5:46
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Mantha – Brazeau – Kindel8:05
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Rust – Rakell – Hayes8:32
xG 0.06–0.23 (21%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov10:41
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte10:07
xG 0.00–0.71 (0%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Girard15:33
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon14:06
xG 0.29–0.71 (29%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
- Clifton – Shea14:16
xG 0.14–0.57 (20%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).