Sun, Mar 1, 2026·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 114 | 113 | 06 | 01 | 1 | 234 |
| ANA | 014 | 111 | 19 | 02 | 2 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:41CGYJoel FarabeeAssists: Ryan Lomberg, John Beecher · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 11:14ANACutter GauthierAssists: Leo Carlsson · Bat, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 16:10CGYYegor SharangovichPPAssists: Kevin Bahl, Morgan Frost · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 10:41ANACutter GauthierPPAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Beckett Sennecke · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ANA Leo Carlsson scored
- 2. CGY Morgan Frost stopped
- 3. ANA Beckett Sennecke stopped
- 4. CGY Nazem Kadri scored
- 5. ANA Mason McTavish scored
- 6. CGY Matvei Gridin stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:10CGYJoel Farabee: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 6:26ANAJackson LaCombe: Holding2 min
- P1 15:08ANABeckett Sennecke: Interference2 min
- P2 14:25ANATim Washe: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:45CGYBrayden Pachal: Interference2 min
- P3 9:44CGYMikael Backlund: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 12:32CGYKevin Bahl: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:35CGYMorgan Frost: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Coronato10:07
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Zary11:02
xG 1.07–0.87 (55%)attempts 21–14goals 0–1
- Lomberg – Beecher – Klapka7:44
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Frost – Sharangovich – Gridin8:19
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Pachal10:32
xG 0.47–0.15 (75%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Whitecloud – Kuznetsov16:40
xG 0.75–0.74 (50%)attempts 19–25goals 0–0
- Weegar – Bahl14:55
xG 0.85–0.98 (46%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Gauthier – Carlsson12:07
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Killorn – Poehling – Sennecke3:56
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – Harkins – Poehling6:03
xG 0.50–0.67 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Viel – McTavish – Sennecke8:06
xG 0.34–0.52 (40%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHelleson – Mintyukov4:53
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Trouba – LaCombe7:49
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Gudas – Zellweger8:49
xG 0.29–0.41 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).