Tue, Mar 3, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 07 | 216 | 06 | 229 |
| BUF | 111 | 212 | 05 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Ryan McLeod, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 0:46BUFOwen PowerAssists: Noah Ostlund · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 5:44BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 6:50VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 8:27VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 7:39BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:50VGKRasmus Andersson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Hertl – Kolesar5:12
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt3:54
xG 0.29–0.13 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Marner – Dorofeyev13:56
xG 0.80–0.75 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Sissons – Reinhardt – Lavoie5:10
xG 0.22–0.28 (43%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Korczak9:54
xG 0.52–0.26 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore13:34
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- McNabb – Korczak5:05
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McLeod – Quinn11:28
xG 1.53–0.32 (83%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Norris – Doan – Ostlund12:13
xG 0.70–0.38 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Malenstyn – Kozak – Benson6:49
xG 0.38–0.49 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs15:14
xG 0.43–1.11 (28%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin8:50
xG 0.80–0.14 (85%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Kesselring6:00
xG 0.52–0.26 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power4:12
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).