Tue, Mar 3, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
46%
8%
39%
BUF winsVGK wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against VGK's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Barbashev–Eichel–Bowman | Smith–Marner–Dorofeyev | Saad–Hertl–Kolesar | Sissons–Reinhardt–Lavoie | Sissons–Kolesar–Reinhardt | Saad–Hertl–Lavoie | Smith–Sissons–Kolesar | McNabb–Theodore | Hanifin–Korczak | Andersson–Lauzon | Hanifin–Andersson | McNabb–Korczak | Theodore–Lauzon | Lauzon–Korczak | Theodore–Andersson | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuch–Thompson–Krebs | 5:500.08–0.23 | 3:380.16–0.15 | 2:040.08–0.50 | 0:570.00–0.18 | 6:540.14–0.19 | 0:430.00–0.03 | 0:460.08–0.00 | 2:380.12–0.64 | 1:140.00–0.00 | 1:380.00–0.13 | 0:320.09–0.00 | ||||
| Norris–Doan–Ostlund | 1:370.01–0.00 | 2:440.00–0.33 | 1:490.19–0.00 | 1:330.04–0.00 | 1:090.07–0.05 | 2:210.01–0.05 | 2:210.07–0.00 | 2:120.28–0.29 | 2:320.19–0.04 | 1:170.04–0.00 | |||||
| Zucker–McLeod–Quinn | 3:110.71–0.04 | 3:150.15–0.25 | 0:350.01–0.00 | 1:270.24–0.03 | 0:530.06–0.00 | 0:520.08–0.01 | 0:390.28–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 1:430.19–0.02 | 3:250.52–0.09 | 1:090.45–0.04 | 1:390.04–0.00 | 1:260.33–0.03 | 0:590.00–0.15 | |
| Malenstyn–Kozak–Benson | 1:210.04–0.17 | 1:590.34–0.07 | 0:440.00–0.00 | 1:290.00–0.19 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 1:060.00–0.06 | 2:380.00–0.20 | 0:310.04–0.07 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.16 | 0:520.00–0.00 | ||||
| Norris–Krebs–Doan | 0:320.00–0.26 | ||||||||||||||
| Byram–Power | 1:550.24–0.20 | 3:190.00–0.29 | 1:260.00–0.19 | 1:010.00–0.11 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 2:080.00–0.15 | 3:320.00–0.19 | 1:240.25–0.29 | 1:360.25–0.04 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.11 | ||||
| Samuelsson–Dahlin | 4:100.50–0.13 | 1:230.00–0.02 | 0:590.03–0.00 | 0:380.28–0.00 | 3:590.20–0.00 | 0:530.00–0.02 | 1:130.28–0.00 | 1:040.03–0.00 | 1:080.29–0.13 | ||||||
| Dahlin–Metsa | 0:400.00–0.01 | 3:440.23–0.23 | 0:380.09–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.01 | 0:380.00–0.05 | 1:200.02–0.01 | 2:480.18–0.09 | 0:400.01–0.15 | 0:400.01–0.00 | 0:350.09–0.00 | |||||
| Samuelsson–Kesselring | 1:390.43–0.19 | 1:400.00–0.00 | 0:410.04–0.00 | 1:040.00–0.07 | 2:050.09–0.11 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 1:410.04–0.00 | 0:450.04–0.15 | |||||||
| Dahlin–Power | 1:220.00–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.07 | 0:480.21–0.03 | 0:310.07–0.04 | 0:420.07–0.00 | 1:460.27–0.04 | 0:470.00–0.03 | ||||||||
| Samuelsson–Power | 3:230.06–0.10 | 2:350.02–0.07 | |||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Byram | 1:170.00–0.16 | 0:370.06–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:460.04–0.00 | 0:440.06–0.00 | 0:570.00–0.16 | |||||||||
| Dahlin–Byram | 1:350.00–0.26 | ||||||||||||||
| Kesselring–Power | 1:030.00–0.00 | 0:440.17–0.00 | 0:440.17–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Byram–Metsa | 0:390.03–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.50 | 1:080.00–0.50 | 0:370.03–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Kesselring–Byram | 0:400.02–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Kesselring–Metsa | 0:320.00–0.06 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFVGKFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 29 | 25:50 | 0:53 | 1:46 | 4 | 2 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 32 | 25:15 | 0:47 | 1:28 | 2 | 6 |
 Shea TheodoreVGK | 33 | 24:29 | 0:45 | 2:21 | 5 | 8 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 29 | 22:54 | 0:47 | 1:29 | 5 | 4 |
 Bowen ByramBUF | 25 | 22:42 | 0:54 | 1:56 | 3 | 3 |
 Mitch MarnerVGK | 24 | 22:11 | 0:55 | 2:17 | 2 | 2 |
 Jack EichelVGK | 24 | 21:19 | 0:53 | 2:21 | 5 | 5 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 26 | 21:07 | 0:49 | 1:45 | 6 | 2 |
 Pavel DorofeyevVGK | 23 | 20:48 | 0:54 | 2:16 | 2 | 2 |
 Brayden McNabbVGK | 29 | 20:36 | 0:43 | 1:26 | 4 | 7 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 25 | 20:04 | 0:48 | 1:49 | 5 | 2 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 25 | 19:36 | 0:47 | 1:40 | 6 | 2 |
 Noah HanifinVGK | 25 | 19:10 | 0:46 | 1:39 | 0 | 2 |
 Reilly SmithVGK | 23 | 19:04 | 0:50 | 1:45 | 1 | 2 |
 Rasmus AnderssonVGK | 27 | 18:16 | 0:41 | 1:21 | 5 | 3 |
 Braeden BowmanVGK | 22 | 18:15 | 0:50 | 1:37 | 6 | 3 |
 Ivan BarbashevVGK | 22 | 17:41 | 0:48 | 1:41 | 6 | 3 |
 Kaedan KorczakVGK | 23 | 17:26 | 0:45 | 1:05 | 0 | 1 |
 Josh DoanBUF | 24 | 16:32 | 0:41 | 1:38 | 2 | 4 |
 Jeremy LauzonVGK | 25 | 15:59 | 0:38 | 1:05 | 4 | 2 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 23 | 15:51 | 0:41 | 1:27 | 3 | 6 |
 Josh NorrisBUF | 24 | 15:35 | 0:39 | 1:42 | 2 | 4 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 22 | 15:05 | 0:41 | 1:16 | 3 | 7 |
 Noah OstlundBUF | 23 | 14:19 | 0:37 | 0:56 | 2 | 4 |
 Jason ZuckerBUF | 21 | 13:36 | 0:39 | 1:13 | 4 | 5 |
 Colton SissonsVGK | 20 | 13:01 | 0:39 | 1:09 | 1 | 4 |
 Tomas HertlVGK | 16 | 11:47 | 0:44 | 2:22 | 4 | 3 |
 Keegan KolesarVGK | 19 | 11:40 | 0:37 | 1:13 | 1 | 3 |
 Michael KesselringBUF | 15 | 11:19 | 0:45 | 1:18 | 0 | 1 |
 Cole ReinhardtVGK | 15 | 11:01 | 0:44 | 1:16 | 2 | 1 |
 Zach MetsaBUF | 15 | 10:58 | 0:44 | 1:14 | 3 | 2 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 15 | 9:46 | 0:39 | 1:06 | 0 | 1 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 15 | 8:57 | 0:36 | 0:56 | 0 | 2 |
 Tyson KozakBUF | 14 | 8:34 | 0:37 | 1:06 | 0 | 1 |
 Raphael LavoieVGK | 12 | 8:34 | 0:43 | 1:05 | 3 | 1 |
 Brandon SaadVGK | 15 | 8:14 | 0:33 | 1:10 | 3 | 3 |