Wed, Mar 4, 2026·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 111 | 19 | 15 | 02 | 0 | 327 |
| NJD | 114 | 116 | 114 | 03 | 2 | 447 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:26TORMatias MaccelliAssists: Dakota Joshua, Simon Benoit · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 7:55NJDTimo MeierAssists: Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 3:20TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Easton Cowan, Auston Matthews · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 6:06NJDArseny GritsyukAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 13:50TORMatthew KniesAssists: John Tavares, Troy Stecher · Bat, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 17:39NJDConnor BrownAssists: Arseny Gritsyuk, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NJD Paul Cotter scored
- 2. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 3. NJD Jesper Bratt scored
- 4. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:16NJDCody Glass: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:21NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 3:50NJDBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:11TORBrandon Carlo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:36TORPhilippe Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 18:40TORDakota Joshua: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hughes won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Lorentz – Robertson5:21
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Joshua – Roy – Maccelli8:32
xG 0.31–0.40 (43%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Nylander – Matthews – Cowan12:01
xG 0.33–0.93 (26%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
- Tavares – Domi – Knies10:10
xG 0.34–1.06 (24%)attempts 6–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Myers – Benoit12:20
xG 0.24–0.54 (31%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- McCabe – Stecher15:07
xG 0.49–0.94 (34%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
- Rielly – Carlo13:24
xG 0.53–1.09 (33%)attempts 11–21goals 2–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Hischier – Mercer11:28
xG 1.08–0.35 (75%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Bratt – Glass – Hameenaho8:22
xG 0.52–0.40 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Cotter – Tsyplakov5:07
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Hughes – Gritsyuk8:11
xG 0.31–0.56 (36%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler15:28
xG 1.04–0.47 (69%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Hughes – Nemec4:15
xG 0.68–0.19 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 2–1
- Dillon – Kovacevic3:03
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).