Wed, Mar 4, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 115 | 410 | 18 | 633 |
| VAN | 27 | 17 | 18 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:17CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 16:31VANMarco RossiPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 17:15VANFilip HronekAssists: Drew O'Connor, Linus Karlsson · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 2:30CARSean WalkerAssists: Taylor Hall, Jackson Blake · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 4:19CARNikolaj EhlersAssists: Jordan Staal, Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 11:53CARSebastian AhoAssists: Seth Jarvis, K'Andre Miller · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 12:50CARNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Sean Walker · Slap, 0.05 xG5–2
- P2 19:17VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Marco Rossi, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.31 xG5–3
- P3 6:45VANNils HoglanderAssists: Elias Pettersson, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.13 xG5–4
- P3 19:46CARNikolaj EhlersENAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.78 xG6–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:27VANDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:03CARAlexander Nikishin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:14CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:03VANElias Pettersson: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:51CARJackson Blake: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:51CARSean Walker: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:51VANElias Pettersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:55CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:47VANTeddy Blueger: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake10:22
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers11:08
xG 0.38–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis13:00
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Carrier – Robinson – Kotkaniemi8:47
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield17:10
xG 0.91–0.18 (83%)attempts 21–6goals 1–1
- Walker – Miller18:01
xG 0.61–0.40 (61%)attempts 18–12goals 2–1
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin12:03
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Garland – Pettersson – Hoglander9:59
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Blueger – Karlsson – Sasson8:58
xG 0.09–0.45 (17%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Boeser – Rossi – Ohgren10:58
xG 0.18–0.59 (23%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
- DeBrusk – Kampf – O'Connor10:37
xG 0.11–0.54 (17%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Hronek3:40
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Willander15:21
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Hronek – Pettersson14:11
xG 0.27–0.72 (27%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).