Thu, Mar 5, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New York Rangers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 112 | 010 | 232 |
| NYR | 14 | 19 | 411 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:13TORMatias MaccelliAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 6:45NYRWill CuylleAssists: Braden Schneider · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 5:27TOREaston CowanAssists: Matthew Knies, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 7:29NYRVladislav GavrikovPPAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Jonny Brodzinski · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 5:38NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 10:27NYRJaroslav ChmelarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 11:19NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 17:09NYRWill CuylleENAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 0:38TORMatias Maccelli: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:34NYRJuuso Parssinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:06TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Matthews – Maccelli14:11
xG 0.83–0.54 (61%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Lorentz – Quillan6:21
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Domi – Joshua – Robertson10:16
xG 0.30–0.64 (32%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
- Tavares – Knies – Cowan10:39
xG 0.28–0.69 (29%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carlo13:57
xG 1.10–0.55 (67%)attempts 23–15goals 1–0
- McCabe – Stecher15:05
xG 0.59–0.66 (47%)attempts 11–16goals 1–2
- Myers – Benoit13:07
xG 0.33–0.81 (29%)attempts 6–20goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Kartye – Laba8:47
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Brodzinski – Sheary – Kartye2:38
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Parssinen – Edstrom – Chmelar6:43
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Zibanejad – Lafrenière – Perreault13:14
xG 0.69–0.66 (51%)attempts 17–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox15:02
xG 1.12–0.45 (71%)attempts 24–10goals 1–1
- Borgen – Fox2:08
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Borgen – Schneider13:49
xG 0.24–0.49 (32%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).