Thu, Mar 5, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 05 | 07 | 115 | 127 |
| WPG | 08 | 214 | 28 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:31WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Cole Koepke, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 19:42WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Alex Iafallo, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 1:52TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 5:34WPGGustav NyquistAssists: Jonathan Toews, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 17:59WPGKyle ConnorENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.83 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:14TBLAnthony Cirelli: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:40WPGConnor Hellebuyck: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:57TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:45WPGElias Salomonsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Gourde – Point5:05
xG 0.34–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel3:17
xG 0.17–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Sabourin – Holmberg2:04
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg7:48
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser10:49
xG 0.51–0.37 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- D'Astous – Carlile4:30
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak10:27
xG 0.12–0.14 (48%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestBarron – Koepke – Duehr3:10
xG 0.56–0.08 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Pearson – Barron – Koepke4:10
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Lowry – Vilardi – Perfetti10:08
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Duehr5:23
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeinola – Salomonsson3:03
xG 0.41–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg16:37
xG 0.80–0.66 (55%)attempts 18–17goals 2–0
- Fleury – Salomonsson15:05
xG 0.72–0.59 (55%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).