Fri, Mar 6, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 5, Dallas Stars 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 211 | 19 | 17 | 02 | 2 | 529 |
| DAL | 310 | 16 | 03 | 02 | 0 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:33COLCale MakarPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 7:11DALMiro HeiskanenPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 10:39DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 16:07DALJustin HryckowianAssists: Mavrik Bourque · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P1 19:58COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Martin Necas, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 1:52DALJamie BennAssists: Justin Hryckowian, Mavrik Bourque · Snap, 0.24 xG2–4
- P2 8:06COLMartin NecasAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:45COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Martin Necas, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson stopped
- 2. COL Valeri Nichushkin scored
- 3. DAL Matt Duchene stopped
- 4. COL Martin Necas scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:28DALOskar Bäck: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 5:56COLJack Drury: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:48DALJustin Hryckowian: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:46DALMavrik Bourque: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:11DALSam Steel: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:43COLJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:20COLBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:56COLRoss Colton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:40DALNathan Bastian: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Kelly – Drury – Bardakov2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Roy – Kelly – Kiviranta2:48
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton7:09
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Necas12:49
xG 0.28–0.71 (28%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson11:18
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Kulak – Malinski13:31
xG 0.12–0.52 (19%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar13:11
xG 0.44–0.87 (33%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestErne – Bourque – Hryckowian5:52
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Steel7:55
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Bastian – Bäck3:07
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Johnston5:50
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley12:45
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen15:20
xG 0.87–0.52 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
- Lyubushkin – Bichsel8:07
xG 0.70–0.46 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).