Fri, Mar 6, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 4, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 37 | 111 | 424 |
| VGK | 08 | 010 | 213 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:18MINMats ZuccarelloUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 8:07MINZach BogosianAssists: Danila Yurov, Yakov Trenin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 8:25MINMichael McCarronGWGAssists: Brock Faber, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 2:17VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Braeden Bowman · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 15:42MINVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Michael McCarron · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 16:55VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:58VGKBraeden Bowman: Holding2 min
- P2 3:00MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:00VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:15VGKJeremy Lauzon: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:15MINBrock Faber: Instigator2 min
- P2 10:15VGKJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:15MINBrock Faber: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:15MINBrock Faber: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 1:22MINZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:57VGKJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:57MINMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Fabbri – Sturm5:35
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov13:15
xG 0.96–0.96 (50%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy2:01
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Trenin – Yurov6:12
xG 0.25–0.40 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin10:56
xG 0.76–0.30 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Spurgeon – Hughes4:53
xG 0.49–0.48 (50%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Brodin – Hughes2:05
xG 0.00–0.01 (5%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Eichel – Bowman15:25
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Saad – Hertl – Kolesar7:11
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Dowd – Sissons – Smith11:54
xG 0.56–0.43 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Marner – Dorofeyev8:42
xG 0.27–0.78 (26%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson7:52
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Andersson – Lauzon9:24
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Korczak9:05
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).