Tue, Mar 10, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New York Islanders 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 017 | 112 | 218 | 13 | 450 |
| STL | 15 | 29 | 08 | 01 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06STLPhilip BrobergAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Robert Thomas · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 9:10STLDylan HollowayAssists: Cam Fowler, Jimmy Snuggerud · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 10:37STLJimmy SnuggerudAssists: Robert Thomas, Theo Lindstein · Snap, 0.22 xG0–3
- P2 17:50NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 5:52NYICalum RitchiePPUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG2–3
- P3 6:52NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 2:11NYIMathew BarzalGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:16STLJordan Kyrou: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:33STLJimmy Snuggerud: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:16NYIMarc Gatcomb: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:20NYIAdam Pelech: Holding2 min
- P3 5:03STLPavel Buchnevich: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Buchnevich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Palat – Pageau2:53
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom9:08
xG 0.75–0.66 (53%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Horvat – Barzal – Heineman11:23
xG 0.76–0.67 (53%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Cizikas – Gatcomb – Shabanov6:24
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Schaefer12:10
xG 0.87–0.39 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Pelech – Schaefer2:40
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Soucy10:07
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Holloway – Snuggerud9:47
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 3–0
- Toropchenko – Suter – Finley5:55
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kyrou – Neighbours – Dvorsky9:06
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Drouin – Stenberg9:21
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Parayko – Lindstein13:01
xG 0.78–0.81 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Broberg – Mailloux16:36
xG 0.99–1.17 (46%)attempts 15–21goals 1–1
- Fowler – Parayko2:36
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).