Wed, Mar 11, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 07 | 09 | 123 |
| PHI | 07 | 28 | 27 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51WSHRyan LeonardPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 4:23PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Travis Sanheim, Alex Bump · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 12:13PHITrevor ZegrasGWGAssists: Owen Tippett, Carl Grundstrom · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 7:17PHIJamie DrysdaleAssists: Noah Cates, Cam York · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 18:57PHIOwen TippettENAssists: Christian Dvorak, Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:16WSHTimothy Liljegren: Holding2 min
- P1 9:03PHITrevor Zegras: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:57WSHJakob Chychrun: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:03PHINikita Grebenkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:03WSHBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:14PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:09WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:09PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:46PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00WSHBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHINikita Grebenkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHINikita Grebenkin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – McMichael2:23
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Beauvillier – Sourdif5:20
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Lapierre – Frank6:27
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas2:30
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Fehérváry10:18
xG 0.93–0.54 (63%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Roy – Sandin10:25
xG 0.30–0.07 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Sandin3:47
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGrundstrom – Tippett – Zegras7:52
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Bump9:53
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Cates – Barkey – Michkov5:50
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Couturier – Glendening – Grebenkin9:04
xG 0.26–0.66 (28%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Juulsen9:54
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim15:26
xG 0.40–0.80 (33%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- York – Drysdale15:57
xG 0.65–1.19 (35%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).