Thu, Mar 12, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 03 | 16 | 113 | 222 |
| BUF | 115 | 010 | 05 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:02BUFSam CarrickAssists: Beck Malenstyn, Owen Power · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 2:14WSHRyan LeonardUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 18:27WSHJakob ChychrunGWGAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:50WSHConnor McMichael: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:50BUFTanner Pearson: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:41WSHMartin Fehérváry: Holding2 min
- P3 6:08BUFLogan Stanley: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDuhaime – McMichael – Frank7:06
xG 0.24–0.12 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – Lapierre11:29
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Beauvillier – Sourdif6:56
xG 0.23–0.25 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Strome – Protas – Leonard10:03
xG 0.36–0.87 (29%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Roy – Fehérváry2:42
xG 0.00–0.06 (1%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry14:20
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Roy – Sandin14:05
xG 0.38–0.68 (36%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Pearson – Malenstyn7:27
xG 0.54–0.03 (95%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Norris – Krebs – Doan7:40
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Thompson – Ostlund – Benson10:13
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn10:34
xG 0.51–0.72 (41%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin16:00
xG 0.84–0.45 (65%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stanley10:02
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Byram – Power17:24
xG 0.76–0.93 (45%)attempts 22–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).