Thu, Mar 12, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 29 | 011 | 226 |
| VGK | 16 | 25 | 36 | 617 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:41VGKColton SissonsAssists: Braeden Bowman · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 5:02VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Kaedan Korczak, Braeden Bowman · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 8:26PITRickard RakellAssists: Bryan Rust, Ryan Shea · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 9:20VGKMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 16:22PITBen KindelAssists: Anthony Mantha, Ryan Shea · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 4:35VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 6:20VGKJack EichelAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 19:01VGKBrayden McNabbENAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 16:11PITConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P1 19:28PITTommy Novak: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:15VGKRasmus Andersson: Interference2 min
- P2 11:47VGKMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:09VGKBrett Howden: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:09PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:21PITAnthony Mantha: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:21PITAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:21VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:21VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:21VGKKaedan Korczak: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lizotte won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRust – Rakell – Chinakhov11:10
xG 0.43–0.19 (70%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Mantha – Koivunen – Kindel2:06
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Soderblom – Hayes – Kindel6:28
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte6:24
xG 0.09–0.30 (23%)attempts 6–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Solovyov10:14
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 12–5goals 0–2
- Letang – Shea11:46
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon12:48
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Marner – Dorofeyev9:29
xG 0.69–0.58 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel9:17
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Sissons – Howden – Bowman8:03
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
- Dowd – Kolesar – Smith8:15
xG 0.01–0.23 (3%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore12:42
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
- Hanifin – Andersson14:19
xG 0.42–0.53 (45%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Korczak11:22
xG 0.55–0.68 (45%)attempts 6–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).