Sat, Mar 14, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Calgary Flames 2, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 07 | 217 | 232 |
| NYI | 310 | 08 | 09 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:06NYICasey CizikasAssists: Kyle MacLean · Snap, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 16:35NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Brayden Schenn, Anthony Duclair · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 19:35NYISimon HolmstromSHGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.29 xG0–3
- P3 2:17CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Olli Maatta, Kevin Bahl · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 8:28CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Yan Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.28 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:19CGYAdam Klapka: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:07NYICarson Soucy: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:04NYICalum Ritchie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBeecher – Zary – Klapka5:57
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Farabee11:11
xG 0.45–0.36 (55%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Strome – Olofsson – Sharangovich12:45
xG 0.48–0.79 (38%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Frost – Coronato – Gridin11:27
xG 0.23–0.84 (21%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Parekh11:13
xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Whitecloud – Kuznetsov14:06
xG 0.85–0.79 (52%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Maatta – Bahl15:36
xG 0.51–0.93 (36%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Barzal – Heineman12:54
xG 0.92–0.35 (72%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Ritchie10:29
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Palat – MacLean7:57
xG 0.41–0.40 (50%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Schenn – Duclair – Holmstrom10:53
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo15:50
xG 1.13–0.52 (69%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Mayfield – DeAngelo2:39
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Pulock – Schaefer15:45
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).