Mon, Mar 16, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Utah Mammoth 6, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 12 | 111 | 49 | 622 |
| DAL | 110 | 110 | 110 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17DALSam SteelAssists: Jamie Benn, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 12:11UTAClayton KellerAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 7:20UTANate SchmidtAssists: Logan Cooley · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 15:34DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 4:16UTAJack McBainSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 8:05UTAKailer YamamotoGWGAssists: Alexander Kerfoot · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 16:06UTAMichael CarconePPAssists: JJ Peterka · Snap, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 19:20UTALawson CrouseENAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.62 xG6–2
- P3 19:56DALAdam ErneAssists: Arttu Hyry, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.14 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:26DALAdam Erne: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:26UTABrandon Tanev: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:02DALLian Bichsel: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:02UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:27DALSam Steel: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:17UTAJohn Marino: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:57UTASean Durzi: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:04UTABarrett Hayton: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:27DALMavrik Bourque: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:29DALMichael Bunting: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestCarcone – Hayton – McBain8:28
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Peterka – Guenther – Cooley8:17
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Kerfoot – Tanev – Yamamoto7:01
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Crouse – Keller10:41
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Sergachev12:07
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Cole – Weegar2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Marino13:23
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRobertson – Bourque – Johnston11:57
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Erne – Bäck – Hyry6:01
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Blackwell – Bunting – Hryckowian6:42
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Benn – Duchene – Steel10:27
xG 0.48–0.59 (45%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen10:51
xG 0.51–0.20 (71%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Myers – Bichsel11:55
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Myers – Lindell2:04
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).