Wed, Mar 18, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Ottawa Senators 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 016 | 06 | 113 | 135 |
| WSH | 07 | 213 | 25 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:09WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Rasmus Sandin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 18:13WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 17:19OTTTim StützleAssists: Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 18:28WSHAliaksei ProtasENAssists: Connor McMichael · Wrist, 0.57 xG1–3
- P3 19:34WSHCole HutsonENUnassisted · Snap, 0.64 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:51WSHTom Wilson: Holding2 min
- P2 1:30OTTNick Cousins: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:35WSHTom Wilson: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 14:13WSHAnthony Beauvillier: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:48OTTTyler Kleven: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Sourdif
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig9:34
xG 0.73–0.46 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle7:57
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund5:36
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto8:30
xG 0.35–0.63 (36%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Spence2:52
xG 0.47–0.09 (84%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Spence – Kleven14:51
xG 0.77–0.49 (61%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Matinpalo6:40
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Beauvillier7:36
xG 0.62–0.03 (96%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Duhaime – Sourdif – Frank2:54
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – Protas7:38
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- McMichael – Sourdif – Leonard4:19
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Sandin3:21
xG 0.43–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Roy – Hutson11:59
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun13:08
xG 0.46–0.65 (41%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).