Wed, Mar 18, 2026·Honda Center, Anaheim
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 114 | 19 | 04 | 11 | 328 |
| ANA | 09 | 115 | 111 | 01 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:51PHILuke GlendeningAssists: Cam York, Garnet Hathaway · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 7:53PHIOwen TippettAssists: Travis Sanheim · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 19:22ANACutter GauthierPPAssists: Pavel Mintyukov · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 18:06ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Troy Terry, Cutter Gauthier · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 2:17PHINoah CatesGWGAssists: Matvei Michkov · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:58ANATim Washe: Elbowing2 min
- P1 10:52ANAJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:03PHICam York: Interference2 min
- P1 17:59ANAPavel Mintyukov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:59PHIMatvei Michkov: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:12PHIChristian Dvorak: Holding2 min
- P2 4:06PHITravis Konecny: Holding2 min
- P2 13:49ANACutter Gauthier: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:21ANAJeffrey Viel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:06PHIMatvei Michkov: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 6:16ANAJansen Harkins: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:16PHINick Seeler: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Zegras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Glendening – Hathaway8:38
xG 0.74–0.13 (85%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Tippett – Zegras – Grebenkin6:58
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Cates – Barkey – Michkov5:40
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Bump7:44
xG 0.22–0.51 (30%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Ristolainen2:17
xG 0.41–0.07 (85%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York3:35
xG 0.17–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Seeler – Andrae8:29
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Terry – Carlsson10:07
xG 0.47–0.35 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – Granlund – Sennecke10:01
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Viel – Poehling – Gauthier10:10
xG 0.69–0.77 (47%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Harkins – Washe3:11
xG 0.07–0.30 (19%)attempts 5–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Mintyukov3:59
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Carlson – LaCombe3:47
xG 0.06–0.03 (67%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Zellweger7:19
xG 0.52–0.54 (49%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).