Thu, Mar 19, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 110 | 011 | 133 |
| DET | 08 | 07 | 313 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:45MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P3 2:14DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 16:35DETAlex DeBrincatGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 19:43DETAndrew CoppENAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.82 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:35DETJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:35MTLKaiden Guhle: Interference2 min
- P1 17:39DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:13MTLAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min
- P2 7:54MTLLane Hutson: Interference2 min
- P2 17:32DETMoritz Seider: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 3:44DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:44MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEvans – Texier – Bolduc12:11
xG 1.10–0.46 (71%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Veleno8:12
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov5:33
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:13
xG 0.54–0.67 (45%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson11:09
xG 0.79–0.21 (79%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Carrier – Hutson2:04
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Carrier – Guhle11:35
xG 0.67–0.44 (60%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat12:03
xG 0.63–0.62 (50%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Shine – Dries3:24
xG 0.02–0.32 (5%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Copp – Appleton – Kasper10:39
xG 0.08–0.42 (16%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Perron – Raymond – Finnie11:07
xG 0.10–0.93 (10%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson9:51
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Seider – Edvinsson18:28
xG 1.03–1.22 (46%)attempts 22–14goals 2–0
- Chiarot – Faulk14:41
xG 0.45–1.13 (28%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).