Sat, Mar 21, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Winnipeg Jets 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 18 | 28 | 01 | 0 | 425 |
| PIT | 213 | 18 | 16 | 05 | 2 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06PITEgor ChinakhovAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 2:02PITRickard RakellAssists: Bryan Rust, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 3:50WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Brad Lambert · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 6:10WPGCole KoepkeSHAssists: Adam Lowry, Dylan DeMelo · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 15:22PITErik KarlssonAssists: Parker Wotherspoon, Egor Chinakhov · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 4:04WPGNeal PionkAssists: Jonathan Toews, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–3
- P3 8:36WPGBrad LambertUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 12:45PITErik KarlssonAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PIT Egor Chinakhov stopped
- 2. WPG Jonathan Toews stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 4. WPG Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 5. PIT Rickard Rakell scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:50PITEgor Chinakhov: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 5:44WPGElias Salomonsson: High sticking2 min
- OT 1:40WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Vilardi – Perfetti12:31
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo16:36
xG 0.64–0.83 (43%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Toews – Nyquist – Koepke6:14
xG 0.06–0.31 (16%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Barron – Rosen – Lambert8:51
xG 0.45–0.71 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Samberg2:35
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Fleury – Pionk2:04
xG 0.17–0.06 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Morrissey – Fleury2:22
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell13:16
xG 1.23–1.00 (55%)attempts 18–15goals 2–2
- Mantha – Brazeau – Kindel8:46
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov13:47
xG 0.53–0.52 (51%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Soderblom11:31
xG 0.09–0.28 (25%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon15:12
xG 0.82–0.65 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Clifton – Shea7:45
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Clifton – Wotherspoon2:45
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).