Sat, Mar 21, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 15 | 13 | 214 |
| OTT | 19 | 220 | 215 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:58OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 9:09OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Tyler Kleven, Jordan Spence · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 17:53OTTWarren FoegeleGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 18:14TORJohn TavaresAssists: Easton Cowan, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 4:52TOREaston CowanAssists: Simon Benoit, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 9:41OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Jordan Spence, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 13:11OTTRidly GreigAssists: Dylan Cozens, Tyler Kleven · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:30OTTShane Pinto: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:30TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:27OTTDennis Gilbert: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P1 9:00TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:12TORMatias Maccelli: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:07OTTTim Stützle: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:43TORJacob Quillan: Interference2 min
- P2 19:37OTTMichael Amadio: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:07TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Groulx
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Cowan5:34
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 2–0
- Tavares – Robertson – Cowan5:29
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Domi – Nylander – Knies7:21
xG 0.07–0.29 (20%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Lorentz – Quillan5:12
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStecher – Benoit2:23
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Carlo9:03
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Myers3:40
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Batherson – Stützle6:01
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig8:37
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund5:40
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto2:02
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven14:14
xG 1.23–0.70 (64%)attempts 23–8goals 3–1
- Gilbert – Matinpalo10:01
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zub14:23
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).