Sun, Mar 22, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Calgary Flames 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 115 | 110 | 00 | 335 |
| CGY | 211 | 111 | 06 | 11 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:25TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Gage Goncalves · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:25CGYVictor OlofssonAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Zach Whitecloud · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 16:52CGYMorgan FrostAssists: Matt Coronato · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 8:28CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Blake Coleman, Hunter Brzustewicz · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 11:47TBLDarren RaddyshAssists: Nikita Kucherov, J.J. Moser · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 15:40TBLPontus HolmbergAssists: Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 0:26CGYRyan StromeGWGAssists: Matvei Gridin, Kevin Bahl · Snap, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (1)
- P1 12:01CGYTyson Gross: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel10:36
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point5:39
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg12:39
xG 0.52–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Goncalves3:16
xG 0.18–0.10 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestD'Astous – Lilleberg16:13
xG 0.86–0.56 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Raddysh – Moser20:06
xG 0.89–0.69 (56%)attempts 22–18goals 1–2
- McDonagh – Cernak14:19
xG 0.72–0.86 (46%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Coronato – Gridin11:43
xG 0.86–0.44 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Farabee14:54
xG 0.70–0.76 (48%)attempts 14–17goals 1–2
- Pospisil – Klapka – Gross5:58
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Strome – Olofsson – Sharangovich14:11
xG 0.45–0.68 (40%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Parekh12:12
xG 0.49–0.35 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Maatta – Brzustewicz18:34
xG 0.77–0.70 (52%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
- Maatta – Whitecloud3:05
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).