Mon, Mar 23, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 2, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 113 | 07 | 233 |
| NYR | 03 | 02 | 15 | 110 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30OTTShane PintoPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jordan Spence · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 6:46OTTWarren FoegeleGWGAssists: Lars Eller · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 7:03NYRConor ShearyAssists: Tye Kartye, Matthew Robertson · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:59NYRTaylor Raddysh: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:29OTTNick Cousins: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:03NYRJuuso Parssinen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:02NYRJ.T. Miller: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 13:41OTTFabian Zetterlund: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:21NYRConnor Mackey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:16NYRVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:27OTTArtem Zub: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:54OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:54NYRVincent Trocheck: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Greig
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEller – Foegele – Zetterlund6:23
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle8:00
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig7:57
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto7:07
xG 0.06–0.38 (14%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Matinpalo8:28
xG 0.70–0.42 (62%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Chabot – Zub5:45
xG 0.18–0.09 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Thomson – Matinpalo3:06
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestParssinen – Edstrom – Chmelar3:50
xG 0.17–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Cuylle – Chmelar3:01
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Raddysh – Cuylle5:50
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Sheary – Kartye8:15
xG 0.38–0.49 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox11:00
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Borgen – Mackey8:19
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Robertson – Schneider10:35
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).