Tue, Mar 24, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Colorado Avalanche 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 416 | 15 | 19 | 630 |
| PIT | 111 | 07 | 114 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57COLNathan MacKinnonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 8:09PITEgor ChinakhovAssists: Samuel Girard, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 15:24COLSam MalinskiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 16:44COLMartin NecasPPGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P1 17:19COLParker KellyAssists: Logan O'Connor, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 17:29COLMartin NecasAssists: Devon Toews, Sam Malinski · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–1
- P3 11:47PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–2
- P3 16:20COLRoss ColtonENAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Jack Drury · Wrist, 0.45 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:39PITNoel Acciari: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:25COLNazem Kadri: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:57COLBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:54COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:01COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:01PITAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:28PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:49PITBryan Rust: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDrury – Kiviranta – Bardakov9:32
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton9:16
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Kadri – Kelly – O'Connor10:39
xG 0.21–0.38 (36%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Necas13:02
xG 0.39–0.71 (35%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson13:32
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Toews – Malinski12:10
xG 0.36–0.64 (36%)attempts 13–7goals 3–0
- Kulak – Makar14:53
xG 0.24–0.74 (24%)attempts 7–22goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBrazeau – Koivunen – Kindel8:12
xG 0.51–0.14 (79%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Mantha – Novak – Chinakhov10:20
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell12:52
xG 0.48–0.56 (46%)attempts 14–11goals 1–3
- Acciari – Dewar – Soderblom9:14
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Girard14:07
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 16–14goals 2–1
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon17:07
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Wotherspoon – Girard2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).