Tue, Mar 24, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Colorado Avalanche 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
63%
8%
21%
PIT winsCOL wins
Colorado Avalanche
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 2 | 22:04 | 0.07 | 30.7% | +14.3 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 21:53 | 0.11 | 25.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 1 | 19:29 | 0.01 | 38.4% | +3.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:03 | 0.51 | 37.4% | +15.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 18:29 | 0.06 | 61.0% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 3 | 17:29 | 0.09 | 35.7% | +19.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:28 | 0.03 | 62.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16:27 | 0.08 | 34.6% | 0.0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:20 | 0.22 | 41.6% | +17.3 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:12 | 0.12 | 37.1% | +9.5 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 15:50 | 0.05 | 59.0% | +14.3 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:05 | 0.00 | 29.6% | +9.5 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 14:58 | 0.09 | 42.4% | +0.2 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 14:06 | 0.06 | 55.6% | +0.2 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:21 | 0.09 | 35.8% | +9.5 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11:50 | 0.51 | 35.8% | +0.2 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 | 0.00 | 55.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:41 | 0.08 | 45.1% | 0.0 |
| W | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 3.47 | +1.5 | 60:00 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 23:53 | 0.21 | 63.7% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | −3 | 4 | 22:40 | 0.58 | 46.2% | +0.8 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −3 | 3 | 21:40 | 0.52 | 47.3% | +0.8 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −3 | 6 | 21:11 | 0.72 | 49.1% | +0.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 20:53 | 0.01 | 58.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:11 | 0.00 | 64.3% | +15.2 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 18:08 | 0.38 | 60.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 17:16 | 0.07 | 60.3% | +15.2 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 2 | 16:36 | 0.04 | 45.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 16:23 | 0.09 | 51.1% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 4 | 15:30 | 0.32 | 59.5% | +15.2 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:56 | 0.22 | 60.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0.00 | 53.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0.00 | 56.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:20 | 0.21 | 71.9% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:48 | 0.07 | 71.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:45 | 0.02 | 56.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:06 | 0.00 | 79.4% | 0.0 |
| L | 29 | 24 | 5 | .828 | 1.75 | −3.3 | 59:50 |