Tue, Mar 24, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Minnesota Wild 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 210 | 17 | 07 | 324 |
| TBL | 011 | 38 | 37 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 18:49MINBrock FaberPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 5:45TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 9:51MINVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Marcus Johansson, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 12:27TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Darren Raddysh, Gage Goncalves · Snap, 0.21 xG3–2
- P2 15:19TBLDarren RaddyshPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 17:07TBLErik CernakGWGAssists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Andrei Vasilevskiy · Snap, 0.27 xG3–4
- P3 18:42TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.81 xG3–5
- P3 19:36TBLPontus HolmbergENAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Other, 0.69 xG3–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:00TBLAnthony Cirelli: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 2:50TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:50MINMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:50MINMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:50TBLCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:08MINBrock Faber: Holding2 min
- P1 18:35TBLBrandon Hagel: Abuse of officials2 min · PPG
- P1 18:55MINNick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:55TBLScott Sabourin: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:10MINJonas Brodin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:49TBLGage Goncalves: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:10TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:04MINMarcus Johansson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:38MINRyan Hartman: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy13:12
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Foligno – McCarron – Trenin4:28
xG 0.01–0.10 (12%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Johansson – Brink – Yurov6:58
xG 0.07–0.26 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Tarasenko – Hartman10:09
xG 0.06–0.88 (6%)attempts 4–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Faber6:00
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber15:53
xG 0.69–1.03 (40%)attempts 17–26goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Middleton9:15
xG 0.06–0.47 (12%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Point – Goncalves10:30
xG 1.06–0.32 (77%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg10:16
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel11:00
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Perry – Sabourin – Paul6:17
xG 0.15–0.04 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak12:24
xG 0.77–0.30 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Raddysh – D'Astous2:01
xG 0.52–0.08 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 1–1
- D'Astous – Lilleberg16:15
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).