Thu, Mar 26, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 116 | 19 | 04 | 2 | 440 |
| OTT | 110 | 16 | 17 | 06 | 1 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 13:46PITRickard RakellAssists: Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 1:50OTTNick CousinsAssists: Tyler Kleven, Linus Ullmark · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 3:45PITErik KarlssonAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ben Kindel · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 1:43PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 3:58OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Tim Stützle, Jordan Spence · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Drake Batherson scored
- 2. PIT Rickard Rakell stopped
- 3. OTT Tim Stützle stopped
- 4. PIT Egor Chinakhov scored
- 5. OTT Shane Pinto stopped
- 6. PIT Ben Kindel scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:29PITErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:49OTTDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:22OTTArtem Zub: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:58PITVille Koivunen: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell5:33
xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Soderblom9:34
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Rust – Rakell – Kindel2:41
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Brazeau – Koivunen – Kindel6:06
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Shea12:06
xG 0.89–0.41 (68%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon18:20
xG 1.10–0.73 (60%)attempts 25–14goals 2–1
- Letang – Girard16:51
xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig11:18
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle13:17
xG 0.84–0.82 (51%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto10:16
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund4:50
xG 0.00–0.47 (0%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven3:44
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Spence – Zub3:27
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kleven – Yakemchuk4:34
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).