Thu, Mar 26, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Seattle Kraken 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 28 | 17 | 04 | 11 | 420 |
| TBL | 16 | 215 | 011 | 01 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:18SEABrandon MontourAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Oscar Fisker Molgaard · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:01TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brandon Hagel, Charle-Edouard D'Astous · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 18:12SEAKaapo KakkoAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Bobby McMann · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 3:35SEABobby McMannAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 5:56TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Darren Raddysh, Charle-Edouard D'Astous · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 10:18TBLCorey PerryPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.20 xG3–3
- OT 2:47SEABrandon MontourGWGAssists: Shane Wright, Berkly Catton · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:08TBLEmil Lilleberg: Holding2 min
- P2 2:16SEABerkly Catton: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:16TBLJ.J. Moser: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:59TBLPontus Holmberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:59TBLPontus Holmberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:59SEABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:59SEABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:20SEARyker Evans: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:32TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:32SEAVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Beniers – Meyers2:21
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Tolvanen – Wright – Fisker Molgaard2:44
xG 0.09–0.00 (95%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Tolvanen – Fisker Molgaard2:16
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Kakko – McMann10:45
xG 0.45–0.59 (43%)attempts 7–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Evans2:01
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Fleury – Evans3:47
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Larsson – Evans2:51
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Girgensons – Holmberg11:34
xG 0.71–0.17 (81%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel12:41
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Guentzel – Point – Goncalves12:31
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Perry – Bjorkstrand – Paul6:39
xG 0.04–0.47 (7%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser16:48
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Raddysh – D'Astous2:50
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Raddysh2:28
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).