Sat, Mar 28, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Florida Panthers 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 28 | 05 | 08 | 221 |
| NYI | 08 | 524 | 08 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:06FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Seth Jones · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 14:03FLAMatthew TkachukUnassisted · Between legs, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 5:28NYIMarc GatcombAssists: Adam Pelech, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 12:09NYIBrayden SchennAssists: Calum Ritchie, Matthew Schaefer · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 14:52NYISimon HolmstromPPGWGAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 17:00NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Anders Lee, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P2 17:57NYICasey CizikasAssists: Carson Soucy, Marc Gatcomb · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:04FLANolan Foote: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:21FLADonovan Sebrango: Interference2 min
- P2 13:40FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:04NYICarson Soucy: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Kunin – Studnicka – Foote2:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Nosek – Gregor2:52
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Nosek – Foote2:14
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Foote – Samoskevich3:51
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Sebrango4:44
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Benning4:03
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling15:12
xG 0.79–1.02 (44%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Barzal – Ritchie11:12
xG 1.24–0.07 (94%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb8:31
xG 0.91–0.29 (76%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Lee – Horvat – Heineman11:46
xG 1.00–0.44 (70%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Palat – Pageau – Holmstrom9:47
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Soucy13:48
xG 1.13–0.20 (85%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Boqvist8:22
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Pelech – Schaefer2:23
xG 0.40–0.13 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).