Sat, Mar 28, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Seattle Kraken 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 111 | 114 | 09 | 00 | 0 | 234 |
| BUF | 010 | 117 | 16 | 03 | 2 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:42SEAChandler StephensonAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Bobby McMann · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 13:18SEABobby McMannAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 15:55BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 11:39BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson scored
- 2. SEA Frederick Gaudreau stopped
- 3. BUF Jack Quinn scored
- 4. SEA Kaapo Kakko stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:34SEAAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:43BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:14BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P2 2:29BUFLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:29SEAJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:40BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:44SEAAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:00BUFLogan Stanley: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:20SEAOscar Fisker Molgaard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carrick won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Eberle – Beniers – Catton9:12
xG 0.77–0.75 (51%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Tolvanen – Meyers2:48
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Kakko – McMann11:19
xG 0.47–0.58 (45%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Evans18:43
xG 0.89–0.83 (52%)attempts 20–22goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Lindgren8:38
xG 0.30–0.32 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn14:31
xG 0.65–0.94 (41%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Krebs8:58
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Norris – Doan – Benson3:44
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn10:04
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Norris – Krebs – Benson4:46
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanley – Timmins7:56
xG 0.87–0.49 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Byram – Power11:25
xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Timmins – Samuelsson2:36
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).