Sat, Mar 28, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 04 | 04 | 15 | 113 |
| STL | 010 | 215 | 313 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:21STLJimmy SnuggerudAssists: Cam Fowler, Dylan Holloway · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 10:35STLJustin HollGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 5:07TORJake McCabeAssists: Dakota Joshua, Jacob Quillan · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 6:46STLPius SuterSHAssists: Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 9:10STLDylan HollowayAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Jake Neighbours · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 18:24STLPhilip BrobergPPAssists: Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:41STLJack Finley: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:37TOREaston Cowan: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:28STLTheo Lindstein: Holding2 min
- P3 17:28TORMatias Maccelli: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Pezzetta – Quillan2:19
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Joshua – Lorentz – Maccelli2:22
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Cowan9:02
xG 0.33–0.49 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Domi – Robertson – Knies6:41
xG 0.00–0.63 (0%)attempts 0–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McCabe – Carlo3:35
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly2:14
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – McCabe13:09
xG 0.36–0.68 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerggren – Dvorsky – Stenberg10:07
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 18–2goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours9:44
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Thomas – Holloway – Snuggerud12:50
xG 0.68–0.50 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Toropchenko – Suter – Finley6:57
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Fowler15:02
xG 1.19–0.48 (71%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Parayko – Lindstein15:08
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Broberg – Mailloux13:52
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).