Sat, Mar 28, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 3, Calgary Flames 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 110 | 114 | 110 | 334 |
| CGY | 27 | 49 | 17 | 723 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:04CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Zayne Parekh, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 4:59CGYJoel FarabeeAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 18:53VANLiam OhgrenAssists: Linus Karlsson, Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 1:32CGYRyan StromeAssists: Olli Maatta, Yegor Sharangovich · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 4:36CGYOlli MaattaGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Hunter Brzustewicz · Poke, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 4:47CGYMorgan FrostAssists: Matt Coronato, Matvei Gridin · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–5
- P2 13:36VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–5
- P2 19:23CGYZayne ParekhPPAssists: Matt Coronato, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–6
- P3 12:40VANNils HoglanderAssists: Victor Mancini, Zeev Buium · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–6
- P3 19:52CGYAdam KlapkaPPAssists: Brennan Othmann, Hunter Brzustewicz · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:59VANEvander Kane: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 4:17CGYAdam Klapka: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:17VANCurtis Douglas: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:15CGYYegor Sharangovich: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:25CGYKevin Bahl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:24VANMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:37CGYZayne Parekh: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:07CGYKevin Bahl: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:23VANMarco Rossi: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Karlsson – Ohgren13:06
xG 0.83–0.15 (85%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Boeser – O'Connor – Rossi11:55
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Kane – Blueger – DeBrusk4:30
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–2
- Kane – DeBrusk – Räty3:34
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJoseph – Mancini9:53
xG 1.41–0.17 (89%)attempts 20–4goals 1–1
- Pettersson – Mancini4:06
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Joseph – Willander2:53
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Olofsson – Sharangovich9:15
xG 0.58–0.52 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Frost – Coronato – Gridin9:52
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Farabee9:34
xG 0.07–0.33 (18%)attempts 3–12goals 1–0
- Othmann – Klapka – Gross6:09
xG 0.28–0.60 (32%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Brzustewicz14:41
xG 0.68–0.27 (72%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Pachal – Parekh10:07
xG 0.31–1.04 (23%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
- Whitecloud – Bahl16:52
xG 0.24–1.05 (19%)attempts 9–16goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).