Sun, Mar 29, 2026·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Nashville Predators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 18 | 113 | 231 |
| TBL | 01 | 111 | 216 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:31NSHJoakim KemellAssists: Filip Forsberg, Justin Barron · Deflected, 0.82 xG1–0
- P2 13:32TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Darren Raddysh, Charle-Edouard D'Astous · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 4:33TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 4:53NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Fedor Svechkov, Adam Wilsby · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 6:52TBLCorey PerryGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Emil Lilleberg · Snap, 0.27 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:28NSHErik Haula: Holding2 min
- P1 7:59TBLJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:23TBLScott Sabourin: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:47NSHLuke Evangelista: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:17NSHSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:01TBLDarren Raddysh: Interference2 min
- P3 2:02NSHMatthew Wood: Holding2 min
- P3 11:15TBLErik Cernak: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:15TBLErik Cernak: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista2:48
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – L'Heureux5:12
xG 0.19–0.12 (60%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kemell – Schaefer – Wood2:00
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Haula – Jost – Evangelista4:58
xG 0.18–0.58 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarron – Wilsby12:18
xG 1.13–0.55 (67%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Hague – Perbix9:20
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Josi – Hague2:54
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Guentzel – Point6:24
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Goncalves7:24
xG 0.44–0.40 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Sabourin – Bjorkstrand – Paul3:07
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg7:50
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestD'Astous – Lilleberg9:36
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Raddysh – Moser14:37
xG 0.85–0.58 (59%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Lilleberg2:34
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).