Mon, Mar 30, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Calgary Flames 2, Colorado Avalanche 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 18 | 112 | 229 |
| COL | 526 | 17 | 316 | 949 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:31COLJack DruryAssists: Parker Kelly, Sam Malinski · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:31COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Martin Necas, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P1 7:37COLNazem KadriPPGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG0–3
- P1 9:19COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Brock Nelson, Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.27 xG0–4
- P1 15:50COLParker KellyAssists: Cale Makar, Jack Drury · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–5
- P2 3:37CGYBrennan OthmannAssists: John Beecher · Slap, 0.32 xG1–5
- P2 19:25COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.06 xG1–6
- P3 6:24COLMartin NecasAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–7
- P3 8:10COLSam MalinskiAssists: Parker Kelly, Jack Drury · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–8
- P3 12:53CGYRyan StromeAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–8
- P3 16:48COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.31 xG2–9
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:28CGYBrayden Pachal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 6:08CGYBlake Coleman: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:09COLBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:32CGYZach Whitecloud: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:03CGYMatt Coronato: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Farabee11:46
xG 0.87–0.58 (60%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Beecher – Othmann – Klapka9:17
xG 0.69–0.89 (44%)attempts 15–21goals 1–2
- Strome – Olofsson – Sharangovich12:39
xG 0.56–0.76 (42%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
- Frost – Coronato – Gridin11:19
xG 0.37–1.42 (21%)attempts 6–23goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Brzustewicz16:39
xG 1.40–0.97 (59%)attempts 25–19goals 2–2
- Pachal – Parekh10:11
xG 0.12–0.76 (13%)attempts 5–19goals 0–2
- Whitecloud – Bahl18:13
xG 0.81–2.00 (29%)attempts 12–26goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Drury – Kiviranta9:51
xG 0.82–0.09 (90%)attempts 21–8goals 3–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin10:56
xG 1.01–0.34 (75%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas11:54
xG 1.62–1.13 (59%)attempts 23–14goals 2–1
- Kadri – Colton – O'Connor13:08
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Malinski12:06
xG 1.65–0.57 (74%)attempts 24–13goals 3–1
- Burns – Manson9:34
xG 1.44–0.64 (69%)attempts 23–10goals 2–1
- Kulak – Malinski3:51
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).