Tue, Mar 31, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 19 | 08 | 123 |
| PIT | 314 | 19 | 19 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby, Egor Chinakhov · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 8:34PITAnthony ManthaGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Connor Dewar · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–2
- P1 18:02PITEgor ChinakhovAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 3:17DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 12:23PITJustin BrazeauAssists: Connor Clifton · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 12:09PITNoel AcciariAssists: Ryan Shea, Elmer Soderblom · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:04PITConnor Dewar: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:04DETJacob Bernard-Docker: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:37DETBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:12PITAnthony Mantha: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:58PITSamuel Girard: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:58DETLucas Raymond: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:23DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:31DETDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat14:49
xG 1.15–0.44 (72%)attempts 24–14goals 0–1
- Perron – Compher – Raymond8:28
xG 0.39–0.33 (55%)attempts 8–4goals 0–2
- Larkin – Mazur – Finnie2:22
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Compher – Mazur2:02
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Faulk14:27
xG 0.74–0.62 (54%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Seider – Edvinsson16:53
xG 0.69–0.70 (50%)attempts 22–13goals 0–2
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson11:16
xG 0.58–0.63 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Mantha – Novak10:56
xG 0.86–0.51 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Chinakhov11:57
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Soderblom12:20
xG 0.78–0.65 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Brazeau – Hayes – Kindel6:41
xG 0.22–0.65 (25%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Shea15:31
xG 1.23–0.62 (66%)attempts 14–16goals 3–0
- Letang – Girard14:02
xG 0.56–0.62 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon15:57
xG 0.64–0.96 (40%)attempts 20–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).