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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 31, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Detroit Red Wings 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.

PIT winsDET wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:04Shot by Compher, saved by Skinner
  3. P1 4:10Goal by Rakell (Crosby, Chinakhov)+13 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Karlsson, Rakell, Wotherspoon, Chinakhov · DET Kane, Chiarot, Faulk, Copp, DeBrincat

  4. P1 5:08Shot by Acciari, saved by Gibson
  5. P1 5:48Shot by Malkin, saved by Gibson
  6. P1 5:53Shot by Novak, saved by Gibson
  7. P1 5:57Shot by Karlsson, saved by Gibson
  8. P1 6:24Shot by Kasper, saved by Skinner
  9. P1 8:18Shot by Malkin, saved by Gibson
  10. P1 8:28Shot by Mantha, saved by Gibson
  11. P1 8:29Shot by Dewar, saved by Gibson
  12. P1 8:34Goal by Mantha (Malkin, Dewar)+12 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Clifton, Mantha, Shea, Dewar · DET Faulk, Larkin, Johansson, Raymond, Finnie

  13. P1 10:37Shot by Faulk, saved by Skinner
  14. P1 11:13Shot by Appleton, saved by Skinner
  15. P1 12:04Dewar: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, Acciari, Girard, Dewar, Soderblom · DET Kane, Copp, DeBrincat, Bernard-Docker, Edvinsson

  16. P1 12:04Bernard-Docker: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, Acciari, Girard, Dewar, Soderblom · DET Kane, Copp, DeBrincat, Bernard-Docker, Edvinsson

  17. P1 12:33Shot by Girard, saved by Gibson
  18. P1 14:13Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Skinner
  19. P1 14:21Shot by Kane, saved by Skinner
  20. P1 15:03Shot by Wotherspoon, saved by Gibson
  21. P1 15:37Chiarot: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Acciari, Girard, Kindel · DET van Riemsdyk, Chiarot, Appleton, Seider, Kasper

  22. P1 16:43Shot by Karlsson, saved by Gibson5v4
  23. P1 17:26Shot by Rakell, saved by Gibson5v4
  24. P1 18:02Goal by Chinakhov (Letang)+8 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Letang, Girard, Brazeau, Chinakhov, Kindel · DET van Riemsdyk, Appleton, Seider, Edvinsson, Kasper

  25. P1 0:00Period end
  26. P2 0:00Period start
  27. P2 1:46Shot by Chiarot, saved by Skinner
  28. P2 3:12Mantha: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Clifton, Mantha, Novak, Shea · DET Larkin, Seider, Edvinsson, Mazur, Finnie

  29. P2 3:15Shot by Kane, saved by Skinner4v5
  30. P2 3:17Goal by Larkin (Kane)4v5+8 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Clifton, Acciari, Shea, Dewar · DET Kane, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond

  31. P2 7:21Shot by Acciari, saved by Talbot
  32. P2 9:27Shot by Johansson, saved by Skinner
  33. P2 10:27Shot by Soderblom, saved by Talbot
  34. P2 10:56Shot by Soderblom, saved by Talbot
  35. P2 11:09Shot by Acciari, saved by Talbot
  36. P2 11:16Shot by Crosby, saved by Talbot
  37. P2 11:57Shot by Seider, saved by Skinner
  38. P2 12:23Goal by Brazeau (Clifton)+7 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Clifton, Shea, Brazeau, Hayes, Kindel · DET Perron, Chiarot, Compher, Seider, Raymond

  39. P2 13:04Shot by Mantha, saved by Talbot
  40. P2 13:13Shot by Wotherspoon, saved by Talbot
  41. P2 17:50Shot by Dewar, saved by Talbot
  42. P2 18:54Shot by Seider, saved by Skinner
  43. P2 18:57Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Skinner
  44. P2 19:47Shot by Perron, saved by Skinner
  45. P2 19:56Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Skinner
  46. P2 19:58Girard: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, Acciari, Girard, Dewar, Soderblom · DET Chiarot, Faulk, Copp, DeBrincat, Raymond

  47. P2 19:58Raymond: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, Acciari, Girard, Dewar, Soderblom · DET Chiarot, Faulk, Copp, DeBrincat, Raymond

  48. P2 0:00Period end4v5
  49. P3 0:00Period start
  50. P3 1:01Shot by Chiarot, saved by Skinner4v4
  51. P3 1:23Larkin: Tripping (2 min)4v4

    On ice: PIT Letang, Acciari, Shea, Dewar · DET Kane, Chiarot, Faulk, Larkin

  52. P3 1:51Shot by Karlsson, saved by Talbot4v3
  53. P3 1:59Shot by Malkin, saved by Talbot5v4
  54. P3 2:09Shot by Raymond, saved by Skinner5v4
  55. P3 3:22Shot by Wotherspoon, saved by Talbot5v4
  56. P3 6:43Shot by Copp, saved by Skinner
  57. P3 6:44Shot by Copp, saved by Skinner
  58. P3 6:46Shot by Faulk, saved by Skinner
  59. P3 8:24Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Skinner
  60. P3 8:47Shot by Johansson, saved by Skinner
  61. P3 11:01Shot by Karlsson, saved by Talbot
  62. P3 12:09Goal by Acciari (Shea, Soderblom)+1 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Clifton, Acciari, Shea, Dewar, Soderblom · DET Perron, Compher, Seider, Raymond, Edvinsson

  63. P3 13:08Shot by Malkin, saved by Talbot
  64. P3 13:31Perron: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Girard, Dewar, Soderblom · DET Chiarot, Faulk, Johansson, Kasper, Finnie

  65. P3 13:44Shot by Malkin, saved by Talbot5v4
  66. P3 14:39Shot by Mantha, saved by Talbot5v4
  67. P3 15:19Shot by Brazeau, saved by Talbot5v4
  68. P3 17:11Shot by Larkin, saved by Skinner
  69. P3 0:00Period end
  70. P3 0:00Final