Thu, Apr 2, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 19 | 07 | 122 |
| OTT | 04 | 18 | 312 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:49BUFMattias SamuelssonAssists: Bowen Byram, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 15:18OTTDylan CozensAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Ridly Greig · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 5:55OTTLars EllerGWGAssists: Artem Zub, Warren Foegele · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 17:42OTTRidly GreigENAssists: Jordan Spence · Wrist, 0.82 xG1–3
- P3 18:42OTTShane PintoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:39BUFZach Benson: Holding2 min
- P1 9:59OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:36OTTJordan Spence: Interference2 min
- P1 17:09BUFLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:09OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:01BUFRyan McLeod: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:42BUFJosh Norris: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McLeod – Quinn9:18
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs8:58
xG 0.33–0.36 (47%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Norris – Doan – Benson10:26
xG 0.45–0.56 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Dunne6:06
xG 0.02–0.17 (8%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power3:27
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Byram6:57
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Byram – Power9:14
xG 0.09–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Amadio – Pinto11:16
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig10:24
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Eller – Cousins – Foegele5:15
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Zetterlund – Batherson – Stützle11:02
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestThomson – Spence10:04
xG 0.68–0.07 (91%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Spence – Zub10:17
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Crotty – Thomson2:09
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).