Thu, Apr 2, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
70%
16%
OTT winsBUF wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
OTT forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against BUF's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Norris–Doan–Benson | Zucker–McLeod–Quinn | Tuch–Thompson–Krebs | Greenway–Malenstyn–Dunne | Tuch–Greenway–McLeod | Tuch–Thompson–McLeod | Byram–Power | Stanley–Metsa | Dahlin–Byram | Samuelsson–Dahlin | Samuelsson–Power | Dahlin–Power | Samuelsson–Byram | Stanley–Samuelsson | Samuelsson–Metsa | Byram–Metsa | Dahlin–Metsa | Stanley–Power | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giroux–Amadio–Pinto | 6:200.36–0.27 | 1:110.01–0.00 | 2:470.00–0.06 | 1:550.05–0.04 | 1:180.01–0.06 | 1:310.01–0.11 | 0:380.28–0.00 | 0:520.03–0.00 | 1:170.12–0.00 | |||||||||
| Zetterlund–Batherson–Stützle | 1:250.09–0.16 | 6:220.08–0.17 | 0:520.00–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.00 | 2:070.00–0.00 | 1:210.05–0.10 | 1:460.00–0.03 | 1:180.00–0.00 | 1:160.00–0.16 | 0:510.03–0.00 | 0:440.00–0.03 | 1:010.09–0.00 | ||||||
| Tkachuk–Cozens–Greig | 5:390.43–0.10 | 1:240.00–0.24 | 1:070.00–0.00 | 2:080.01–0.03 | 1:460.00–0.10 | 2:300.24–0.24 | 1:170.00–0.00 | 1:150.00–0.00 | 0:350.19–0.00 | |||||||||
| Eller–Cousins–Foegele | 0:390.02–0.00 | 3:020.13–0.02 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 2:150.14–0.02 | 0:420.02–0.00 | 0:510.00–0.04 | ||||||||||||
| Eller–Amadio–Pinto | 0:410.00–0.05 | |||||||||||||||||
| Cousins–Foegele–Stützle | 0:340.00–0.03 | 0:470.00–0.03 | ||||||||||||||||
| Spence–Zub | 1:000.00–0.31 | 4:220.13–0.10 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.00 | 1:110.01–0.00 | 1:460.00–0.06 | 1:180.00–0.04 | 0:420.01–0.00 | 1:130.01–0.00 | 0:560.28–0.00 | 1:060.00–0.31 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 1:010.00–0.00 | 1:150.12–0.00 | ||||
| Thomson–Spence | 2:240.43–0.03 | 2:390.12–0.00 | 2:060.00–0.02 | 0:350.10–0.00 | 1:520.00–0.03 | 2:260.00–0.02 | 1:030.24–0.00 | 0:340.02–0.00 | 1:260.00–0.03 | 0:370.04–0.00 | 0:350.10–0.00 | 0:450.07–0.00 | ||||||
| Crotty–Matinpalo | 1:320.00–0.00 | 2:190.05–0.13 | 1:170.04–0.00 | 0:480.00–0.00 | 1:110.05–0.10 | 1:080.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 | 0:420.00–0.03 | 0:410.04–0.00 | ||||||||
| Zub–Matinpalo | 1:020.00–0.00 | 1:240.00–0.11 | 2:290.19–0.02 | 1:190.00–0.00 | 1:320.00–0.11 | 0:460.00–0.00 | 1:310.03–0.02 | |||||||||||
| Thomson–Matinpalo | 1:450.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.13 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 1:240.00–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.00 | 0:580.11–0.13 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.04 | ||||||||||
| Spence–Matinpalo | 1:200.01–0.10 | 0:530.01–0.00 | 0:380.01–0.00 | 0:450.05–0.10 | 0:450.01–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Crotty–Spence | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:310.09–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Crotty–Thomson | 0:500.00–0.03 | 1:030.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.03 | 0:300.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Kleven–Zub | 0:320.00–0.11 | 0:310.00–0.06 | 0:470.00–0.11 | |||||||||||||||
| Thomson–Zub | 0:350.04–0.01 | 0:330.04–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.01 |
Every shift, one row per player.
OTTBUFFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Jordan SpenceOTT | 36 | 30:48 | 0:51 | 1:57 | 6 | 2 |
 Nikolas MatinpaloOTT | 32 | 24:29 | 0:46 | 1:57 | 0 | 9 |
 Artem ZubOTT | 28 | 24:24 | 0:52 | 1:46 | 3 | 9 |
 Bowen ByramBUF | 24 | 22:58 | 0:57 | 2:19 | 5 | 3 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 24 | 22:37 | 0:57 | 4:03 | 5 | 2 |
 Lassi ThomsonOTT | 31 | 20:55 | 0:40 | 1:33 | 7 | 2 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 20 | 20:49 | 1:02 | 2:27 | 4 | 2 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 24 | 20:41 | 0:52 | 1:53 | 1 | 3 |
 Shane PintoOTT | 24 | 20:10 | 0:50 | 2:26 | 4 | 6 |
 Tim StützleOTT | 22 | 19:57 | 0:54 | 2:34 | 2 | 1 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 22 | 19:34 | 0:53 | 1:48 | 2 | 4 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 25 | 18:57 | 0:45 | 2:34 | 8 | 6 |
 Michael AmadioOTT | 23 | 18:53 | 0:49 | 1:43 | 3 | 6 |
 Josh DoanBUF | 23 | 18:25 | 0:48 | 1:40 | 3 | 1 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 25 | 17:35 | 0:42 | 1:38 | 3 | 4 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 22 | 17:12 | 0:47 | 1:36 | 6 | 4 |
 Ridly GreigOTT | 24 | 17:08 | 0:43 | 2:01 | 5 | 3 |
 Jason ZuckerBUF | 21 | 16:48 | 0:48 | 1:26 | 4 | 1 |
 Josh NorrisBUF | 21 | 16:10 | 0:46 | 1:14 | 4 | 3 |
 Dylan CozensOTT | 21 | 16:09 | 0:46 | 1:49 | 6 | 2 |
 Zach MetsaBUF | 18 | 16:04 | 0:54 | 2:31 | 0 | 6 |
 Brady TkachukOTT | 22 | 15:55 | 0:43 | 1:44 | 6 | 2 |
 Drake BathersonOTT | 18 | 15:18 | 0:51 | 2:17 | 2 | 0 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 22 | 15:13 | 0:42 | 1:11 | 4 | 2 |
 Fabian ZetterlundOTT | 18 | 14:12 | 0:47 | 1:09 | 3 | 0 |
 Claude GirouxOTT | 23 | 13:52 | 0:36 | 1:00 | 4 | 4 |
 Cameron CrottyOTT | 21 | 13:37 | 0:39 | 1:41 | 0 | 0 |
 Logan StanleyBUF | 17 | 13:30 | 0:48 | 1:22 | 0 | 4 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 18 | 12:16 | 0:41 | 1:21 | 4 | 1 |
 Jordan GreenwayBUF | 14 | 11:39 | 0:50 | 2:32 | 0 | 4 |
 Nick CousinsOTT | 14 | 10:25 | 0:45 | 1:37 | 3 | 0 |
 Warren FoegeleOTT | 16 | 9:42 | 0:36 | 1:31 | 5 | 0 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 13 | 9:33 | 0:44 | 0:59 | 0 | 3 |
 Lars EllerOTT | 14 | 8:18 | 0:36 | 1:05 | 2 | 5 |
 Josh DunneBUF | 11 | 7:17 | 0:40 | 0:54 | 0 | 3 |
 Tyler KlevenOTT | 3 | 1:48 | 0:36 | 0:40 | 0 | 0 |