Thu, Apr 2, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Calgary Flames 3, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 211 | 03 | 322 |
| VGK | 014 | 314 | 36 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41CGYMorgan FrostUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 1:47VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:38CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Mikael Backlund, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 6:42VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 12:11CGYBlake ColemanUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 16:21VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 12:20VGKBrett HowdenGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 14:59VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 18:31VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Mark Stone, Ivan Barbashev · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:12CGYKevin Bahl: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:48CGYBrayden Pachal: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:12VGKBrett Howden: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:43VGKNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:37CGYMorgan Frost: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:29CGYAdam Klapka: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:16CGYRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:22CGYAdam Klapka: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zary won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Coronato – Gridin10:54
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
- Backlund – Coleman – Farabee10:05
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 4–10goals 2–1
- Pospisil – Zary – Klapka6:47
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Strome – Olofsson – Sharangovich11:06
xG 0.10–0.44 (18%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kuznetsov – Parekh10:20
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Whitecloud – Bahl15:06
xG 0.30–0.29 (50%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Maatta – Parekh3:02
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Marner5:37
xG 0.34–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 3–0
- Barbashev – Howden – Dorofeyev2:26
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Stone – Eichel – Marner2:44
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 5–1goals 1–1
- Smith – Hertl – Sissons10:24
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson16:19
xG 1.07–0.36 (75%)attempts 23–8goals 3–1
- Lauzon – Korczak12:20
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- McNabb – Theodore13:34
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).