Sat, Apr 4, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 27 | 06 | 210 | 423 |
| PIT | 29 | 618 | 14 | 931 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:20PITNoel AcciariAssists: Elmer Soderblom, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 5:06PITErik KarlssonPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Egor Chinakhov · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 7:10FLAA.J. GreerAssists: Cole Reinhardt, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 14:31FLASeth JonesAssists: Cole Schwindt · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 1:51PITAnthony ManthaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 5:51PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 8:27PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Tommy Novak, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–5
- P2 9:53PITElmer SoderblomAssists: Connor Dewar · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–6
- P2 17:48PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–7
- P2 18:07PITRyan SheaAssists: Samuel Girard, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–8
- P3 3:30PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–9
- P3 8:02FLANoah GregorAssists: Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–9
- P3 10:46FLAMackie SamoskevichAssists: A.J. Greer · Snap, 0.07 xG4–9
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:12FLAMike Benning: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:26FLADonovan Sebrango: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:05FLALuke Kunin: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 15:05PITConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:54FLAEetu Luostarinen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Kunin – Reinhardt – Schwindt10:46
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk12:40
xG 0.20–0.50 (28%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
- Nosek – Gregor – Boqvist11:50
xG 0.14–0.50 (22%)attempts 4–14goals 0–2
- Greer – Luostarinen – Samoskevich12:52
xG 0.61–1.05 (37%)attempts 15–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestForsling – Hovorka3:04
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Sebrango – Hovorka2:19
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Forsling – Benning14:13
xG 0.58–0.54 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Novak11:54
xG 1.46–0.40 (78%)attempts 23–5goals 2–2
- Acciari – Dewar – Soderblom11:32
xG 0.67–0.16 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Crosby – Rust – Chinakhov10:59
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Mantha – Brazeau – Kindel8:49
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Girard17:23
xG 0.99–0.48 (68%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon16:17
xG 0.75–0.38 (66%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Clifton – Shea17:04
xG 0.79–0.49 (62%)attempts 18–11goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).