Sun, Apr 5, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 213 | 09 | 16 | 328 |
| OTT | 215 | 110 | 36 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:22CARLogan StankovenPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Jackson Blake · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 7:17OTTDylan CozensPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 8:51OTTTim StützleUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 19:40CARAndrei SvechnikovUnassisted · Poke, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 8:33OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Artem Zub, Ridly Greig · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 2:50OTTShane PintoPPGWGAssists: Fabian Zetterlund · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 6:32OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Ridly Greig, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 17:30CARTaylor HallAssists: Sean Walker, Jackson Blake · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 19:03OTTClaude GirouxENAssists: Shane Pinto, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.57 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:03OTTJordan Spence: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:22CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:24OTTNick Cousins: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:59CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Jankowski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Ehlers – Svechnikov3:42
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Carrier – Aho – Jarvis2:19
xG 0.01–0.07 (12%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Robinson – Kotkaniemi10:48
xG 0.27–0.49 (35%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Jankowski – Carrier – Ehlers7:54
xG 0.17–0.49 (26%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin13:22
xG 0.44–0.63 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Slavin – Chatfield17:19
xG 0.38–0.97 (28%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Walker – Miller17:04
xG 0.51–1.23 (30%)attempts 19–18goals 1–3
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig11:09
xG 0.77–0.12 (87%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle9:44
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto12:03
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund10:30
xG 0.08–0.63 (11%)attempts 3–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Matinpalo12:24
xG 1.40–0.42 (77%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Spence – Sanderson3:41
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub15:36
xG 0.23–0.40 (36%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).