Tue, Apr 7, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 3, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 04 | 28 | 18 | 00 | 320 |
| DAL | 02 | 16 | 27 | 110 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:30DALJustin HryckowianAssists: Thomas Harley, Nils Lundkvist · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 12:38CGYJoel FarabeeAssists: Adam Klapka, Olli Maatta · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 18:52CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Adam Klapka, Zach Whitecloud · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 0:26CGYZayne ParekhPPAssists: Matt Coronato, Matvei Gridin · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 1:16DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.29 xG3–2
- P3 4:51DALJason RobertsonAssists: Matt Duchene, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.28 xG3–3
- OT 3:39DALWyatt JohnstonPPGWGAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:40CGYMatt Coronato: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:12CGYMartin Pospisil: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:48DALIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:20DALTyler Myers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:54CGYConnor Zary: Holding2 min
- P3 12:40DALAdam Erne: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 0:48CGYRyan Strome: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestSharangovich – Zary – Klapka6:29
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Frost – Farabee – Gridin10:20
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 6–4goals 0–2
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato10:34
xG 0.58–0.55 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Strome – Pospisil – Suniev5:45
xG 0.03–0.26 (12%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Parekh5:02
xG 0.54–0.14 (79%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Maatta – Whitecloud4:52
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Whitecloud – Kuznetsov9:47
xG 0.70–0.51 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Robertson – Bourque6:29
xG 0.91–0.31 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Rantanen – Johnston – Hryckowian4:59
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Benn – Erne – Hyry4:03
xG 0.07–0.03 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Robertson – Johnston7:11
xG 0.28–0.35 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Harley2:39
xG 0.96–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Lundkvist – Harley6:08
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Myers – Bichsel6:31
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).