Thu, Apr 9, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 010 | 014 | 013 | 037 |
| BUF | 110 | 04 | 410 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:41BUFPeyton KrebsGWGAssists: Josh Norris · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 7:19BUFJosh DoanUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 13:21BUFJack QuinnAssists: Logan Stanley, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 13:46BUFJosh DoanAssists: Zach Benson, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–4
- P3 16:55BUFRasmus DahlinENAssists: Logan Stanley, Tyson Kozak · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:47CBJAdam Fantilli: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:42BUFOwen Power: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:45CBJConor Garland: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:23BUFZach Benson: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:31BUFJordan Greenway: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:47BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJenner – Wood – Lundeström2:03
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lundeström – Marchenko – Fantilli6:06
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Wood – Monahan – Johnson3:24
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Jenner – Garland – Marchment3:04
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zamula4:34
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Provorov – Zamula3:11
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Provorov – Mateychuk8:59
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Doan – Benson9:30
xG 0.59–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Kozak6:49
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs12:02
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn10:14
xG 0.18–0.67 (22%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Power14:41
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Stanley – Metsa11:50
xG 0.25–0.45 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin11:50
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).