Sat, Apr 11, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Ottawa Senators 3, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 15 | 04 | 27 | 316 |
| NYI | 08 | 07 | 08 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:06OTTRidly GreigSHGWGAssists: Michael Amadio · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 12:36OTTJake SandersonPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–0
- P3 17:29OTTMichael AmadioENAssists: Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.83 xG3–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:01OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:05NYIKyle MacLean: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:37OTTDrake Batherson: Holding2 min
- P1 17:02OTTDrake Batherson: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:47NYITony DeAngelo: Interference2 min
- P2 14:37OTTJordan Spence: Holding2 min
- P2 19:40OTTJordan Spence: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:16NYIEmil Heineman: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:17OTTDylan Cozens: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:04NYICarson Soucy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:38NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig5:26
xG 0.18–0.09 (65%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle5:49
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Foegele – Zetterlund3:59
xG 0.00–0.17 (1%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto7:03
xG 0.12–0.33 (27%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Thomson – Matinpalo6:11
xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub11:27
xG 0.35–0.70 (33%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Chabot – Spence14:57
xG 0.21–0.76 (22%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb6:08
xG 0.69–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Holmstrom5:20
xG 0.35–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Barzal – Ritchie7:07
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Palat – Pageau – Heineman4:53
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Soucy8:27
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Schaefer4:13
xG 0.25–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Pulock – Schaefer7:44
xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).