Mon, Apr 13, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 3, Nashville Predators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 15 | 27 | 323 |
| NSH | 06 | 09 | 213 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:53SJSIgor ChernyshovPPAssists: William Eklund, Michael Misa · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 3:04SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Igor Chernyshov, Will Smith · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P3 15:39NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Nick Perbix, Ryan Ufko · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 18:15SJSMacklin CelebriniENGWGAssists: Collin Graf, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–1
- P3 18:50NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Ryan Ufko, Roman Josi · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (2)
- P2 7:54NSHSteven Stamkos: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:51SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Gaudette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Sherwood – Eklund14:11
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk9:43
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Graf – Misa9:10
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Chernyshov13:14
xG 0.60–1.34 (31%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Orlov – Mukhamadullin16:59
xG 0.81–0.76 (51%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Ferraro2:17
xG 0.00–0.02 (7%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Cagnoni12:45
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista13:07
xG 1.60–0.27 (85%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Jost – Svechkov – Schaefer5:12
xG 0.05–0.11 (32%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Haula – L'Heureux – Kemell3:38
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg2:49
xG 0.04–0.21 (17%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Skjei17:41
xG 0.92–0.84 (52%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Barron – Wilsby14:53
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Perbix – Ufko12:29
xG 0.13–1.01 (12%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).