Wed, Apr 15, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Dallas Stars 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 15 | 211 | 012 | 00 | 3 | 428 |
| BUF | 110 | 27 | 05 | 02 | 2 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:19DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Esa Lindell, Ilya Lyubushkin · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 12:48BUFJosh NorrisAssists: Zach Benson, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 3:32BUFZach BensonSHAssists: Tyson Kozak · Snap, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 4:24DALEsa LindellPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Justin Hryckowian · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 11:09BUFAlex TuchAssists: Tanner Pearson, Owen Power · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 16:00DALJustin HryckowianUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Josh Norris scored
- 2. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 3. BUF Jack Quinn scored
- 4. DAL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch stopped
- 6. DAL Matt Duchene scored
- 7. BUF Josh Doan stopped
- 8. DAL Wyatt Johnston scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:08DALRadek Faksa: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:33DALIlya Lyubushkin: Holding2 min
- P2 2:24BUFJordan Greenway: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:32BUFLuke Schenn: Holding2 min
- P3 13:09BUFConor Timmins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 2:36DALMavrik Bourque: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dunne won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Erne – Bäck8:35
xG 0.91–0.04 (95%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Bunting – Hryckowian8:14
xG 0.38–0.21 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Duchene – Robertson – Bourque10:46
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston10:16
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Lyubushkin10:17
xG 1.07–0.22 (83%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Lyubushkin – Harley2:01
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Myers – Bichsel14:50
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMalenstyn – Dunne – Benson4:56
xG 0.41–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Dunne2:41
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pearson – Krebs – Quinn11:58
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Tuch – Greenway – Kozak10:01
xG 0.06–0.42 (12%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanley – Timmins4:11
xG 0.53–0.09 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stanley2:57
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Timmins – Power2:22
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).