Tue, Sep 29, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 18 | 16 | 324 |
| TOR | 111 | 06 | 111 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Morgan Rielly, Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:53MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Kirby Dach · Bat, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 4:52MTLZachary BolducAssists: Mike Matheson, Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 13:12MTLAlexandre CarrierGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 15:46TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Easton Cowan, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:33TORNick Paul: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:42MTLIvan Demidov: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:56TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:56MTLAlex Newhook: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:45MTLCole Caufield: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:01TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:16MTLAlexandre Texier: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00TORJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Evans – Bolduc7:09
xG 0.72–0.41 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Newhook – Slafkovský – Demidov9:55
xG 0.27–0.24 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Danault – Texier – Dach9:22
xG 0.06–0.48 (10%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Kreider – Suzuki – Caufield10:28
xG 0.17–0.60 (22%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Carrier2:19
xG 0.32–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Struble – Hutson2:08
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Struble – Xhekaj8:26
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestRoslovic – Matthews – Marchenko12:48
xG 0.90–0.18 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Sissons – Paul – Cowan7:21
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Blueger – Duhaime – MacEwen3:45
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McKenna8:12
xG 0.22–0.69 (24%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Raddysh11:26
xG 0.93–0.47 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
- Tanev – McCabe9:11
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Stecher11:37
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).